How Can I Tell How Worn My Stick Is Before It Starts Drifting Badly?

This is the right question and almost nobody asks it, because people only measure a stick once it is already failing. Wear is measurable well before drift appears, and the useful number is not the one everyone quotes.

Resting value is a late indicator. By the time a stick rests off centre, the carbon track is already worn through at the centre position and you are weeks or months from needing a module. The early indicator is noise at mid-travel. Hold the stick at roughly half deflection, as steady as you can, and watch the reported value. A new stick holds within a very tight band, typically about 0.005. As the track degrades, the wiper starts skipping over rough patches and that band widens, to 0.01, then 0.02, then more. That widening starts long before the centre position is affected, which is why your two previous controllers felt like they failed out of nowhere: the wear was accumulating invisibly in a number you were not watching.

The second early indicator is track consistency. Push the stick slowly from centre to full deflection and watch for small plateaus or jumps where the value hesitates. A healthy track climbs smoothly. Flat spots mark worn regions, and they appear in the directions you use most, usually forward and the diagonal you favour.

The crucial part is that these only mean something against your own baseline. Manufacturing tolerance between units is wider than early wear, so comparing your figure to someone else's tells you very little. Measure both sticks now while they are healthy, write the numbers down with the date, then repeat every two or three months. When your mid-travel noise band roughly doubles from baseline, order the module. You will replace it on a quiet evening instead of mid-session, which is exactly what you asked for.